Its election season now. With BJP declaring their PM candidate, the atmosphere is really building up. More than Modi, for BJP, this is very important election. Its kind of make or break situation for them. First of all they failed to read Indian voters in 2004 and then the legendary debacle in 2009 general elections under the leadership of Advani made them look miserable. So it becomes very important for them to maximize anti-incumbency votes this time around under the leadership of Modi. There is certainly a leadership void in country and none of the congressman looks capable of filling it. Its not as if BJP or any other party has lot many candidates who can run a country but amongst all the possibilities, Modi's name has better acceptability; most probably because of the development plank he has been holding for last 10 years in Gujrat. There is other side to Modi's story as well but many Indians who have been exposed to potholed roads and frequent electricity cuts would like to see whether Modi can deliver (developmental) results similar to Gujrat at national level.
Thought of getting started and analyse at my level, which way these elections are going; before jumping on to region and states and eventually to India, lets get started with Nanded, My hometown.
Nanded, a constituency represented by India's Home Minister during Narsimharao Govt, Shankarrao Chavan has mostly been a loyal congress ground. Surely credits do go to S.B. Chavan for all the possible developmental work he has done during his tenure as Chief Minister of Maharashtra or Home Minister of India. In last 20-25 years, at least I have not heard anybody saying anything bad about him. He was known as pretty tough administrator, basically a no-nonsense guy and this reputation has surely helped Congress in Nanded. It was Shankarrao Chavan because of which people voted for Ashok Chavan in 1987 when he was barely 28-29 years old. Nanded Janta has voted for Bhaskarrao Khatgaonkar as well, who is otherwise a dud, looking at Shankarrao Chavan. I do strongly feel such factors do decide voting.
Anyways moving on, though Nanded has been a Congress bastion, Loksabha results from here have surprised everybody as well. Particularly it must be noted that strong anti-incumbency voting does happen in this constituency. In 1977, It was Janta Party who were voted from here but more significant results have come in elections after that.
In 1989 elections, Nanded seat went to Janta Dal leader Venkatesh Kabde defeating Ashok Chavan though back in 1991, post Rajiv Gandhi assasination, Nanded voted for Congress again. During elections in 90's Shankarrao ensured that Nanded seat will go to Congress manipulating three-way or a four-way fight. Nanded did have a decent voters for Peasants and Workers Party. Even their leader Sharad Joshi fought elections from here. On all these occasions opposing BJP candidate has lost by a margin smaller than votes garnered by third and fourth placed parties.
Come 2004, there was strong anti-incumbency against the ruling MP from Congress; BJP finally managed to win this Congress bastion. Congress managed to win this seat back in 2009 elections mainly due to Ashok Chavan who was the then Chief Minister of Maharashtra.
So now when we look at 2014 elections, It looks likely that BJP can win this seat with strong anti-incumbency voting as there is no Congress wave or the presence of Shankarrao / Ashokrao Chavan in government. Also, another factor of AIMIM will also have its impact on this constituency this time around. In recent municipal elections AIMIM has come out very strongly with some ~10+ corporators. So it will be important to see whether AIMIM contests this seat or provides its good chunk of votes to Congress. As the impact of Peasants and Workers Party has decreased in this constituency, Bahujan Mahasangh's impact has increased. If NDA manages to wean in RPI Athawale group that can add some votes to BJP's kitty.
So all in all, a possible win for BJP.
Nanded Constituency Results in last 8 elections:
Thought of getting started and analyse at my level, which way these elections are going; before jumping on to region and states and eventually to India, lets get started with Nanded, My hometown.
Nanded, a constituency represented by India's Home Minister during Narsimharao Govt, Shankarrao Chavan has mostly been a loyal congress ground. Surely credits do go to S.B. Chavan for all the possible developmental work he has done during his tenure as Chief Minister of Maharashtra or Home Minister of India. In last 20-25 years, at least I have not heard anybody saying anything bad about him. He was known as pretty tough administrator, basically a no-nonsense guy and this reputation has surely helped Congress in Nanded. It was Shankarrao Chavan because of which people voted for Ashok Chavan in 1987 when he was barely 28-29 years old. Nanded Janta has voted for Bhaskarrao Khatgaonkar as well, who is otherwise a dud, looking at Shankarrao Chavan. I do strongly feel such factors do decide voting.
Anyways moving on, though Nanded has been a Congress bastion, Loksabha results from here have surprised everybody as well. Particularly it must be noted that strong anti-incumbency voting does happen in this constituency. In 1977, It was Janta Party who were voted from here but more significant results have come in elections after that.
In 1989 elections, Nanded seat went to Janta Dal leader Venkatesh Kabde defeating Ashok Chavan though back in 1991, post Rajiv Gandhi assasination, Nanded voted for Congress again. During elections in 90's Shankarrao ensured that Nanded seat will go to Congress manipulating three-way or a four-way fight. Nanded did have a decent voters for Peasants and Workers Party. Even their leader Sharad Joshi fought elections from here. On all these occasions opposing BJP candidate has lost by a margin smaller than votes garnered by third and fourth placed parties.
Come 2004, there was strong anti-incumbency against the ruling MP from Congress; BJP finally managed to win this Congress bastion. Congress managed to win this seat back in 2009 elections mainly due to Ashok Chavan who was the then Chief Minister of Maharashtra.
So now when we look at 2014 elections, It looks likely that BJP can win this seat with strong anti-incumbency voting as there is no Congress wave or the presence of Shankarrao / Ashokrao Chavan in government. Also, another factor of AIMIM will also have its impact on this constituency this time around. In recent municipal elections AIMIM has come out very strongly with some ~10+ corporators. So it will be important to see whether AIMIM contests this seat or provides its good chunk of votes to Congress. As the impact of Peasants and Workers Party has decreased in this constituency, Bahujan Mahasangh's impact has increased. If NDA manages to wean in RPI Athawale group that can add some votes to BJP's kitty.
So all in all, a possible win for BJP.
Nanded Constituency Results in last 8 elections:
