Friday, June 06, 2014

Rewriting the rules of Game - Part 1

Modi Govt has started functioning a week before the Swearing-in ceremony. That in itself is FOAK (first of a kind). So What exactly have they done in this week. They invited all SAARC members for Modi Govt Swearing-In ceremony. It is important to understand whether it has happened ever before and if not, does it have any impact?

Surely never before neither India has invited neighbors nor any other democracy has done that either.

BJP claims that these invitations are part of celebrations of democracy. Undoubtedly, Elections in World's biggest democracy is a big event and the kind of results this election has thrown It needs to be celebrated.

It is important to know what benefits BJP is trying to achieve at National level politics with these invitations. Also, does this celebration has any impact on neighboring countries? Particularly with their own democracies. I believe there is larger message which is being sent from India.

India is the largest country, big brother among SAARC countries. In recent past, our relations have not been impressive but just developing relations cannot be the purpose of these invitations. As I am trying to analyze it, I could ascertain that, these invitations can impact strengthening democracies in respective countries.

Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal have been struggling with their democracies and it is clearly evident that who else but nation's own people can help strengthen democracy. So, I am questioning myself, whether this celebration will have any impact of respective countrymen. It would not have been,  say if somebody was invited 20 years ago. But the world has changed a lot in last 20 years. Through Social Media and Television, everybody knows what happens in neighboring country. A Rock-Solid democracy in India and developmental politics can have immediate impact on neighboring countries. Helping develop equally strong democracy in neighboring countries can have significant impact on bilateral relations as well. And Probably that's the larger message one would like to drive from these invitations. Invitations has something like group message for the neighbors.

The One-on-One, Bilateral meetings will continue in which the contentious issues could be discussed. There are enough disputes between India and its neighbors but probably inviting neighbors and neighbor's magnanimity in accepting the invitations show that their respect towards India and Indian democracy. Also, a serious backlash respective leader of nations would have faced from their own people. Its was diplomatic smartness which Indian Government showed probably first time in a decade.

What did Modi achieve with these invitations at National Level politics?

Coming to the criticism this move would receive from Indian people. Undoubtedly, Inviting Pakistani premier wasn't an easy decision when in a largely viewed interview during elections Modi said that discussions cannot be heard while gunshots are around. Another objection has been from NDA partners about inviting SriLankan president. Many of these NDA parties are Tamilian Parties who would oppose such proactive step tooth and nail. But NDA still went ahead hosting SriLankan President. It was simply to convey to regional parties that Foreign relations falls under Central Government's purview in Federal structure and Central Government would take necessary steps to ensure what is good for country. TN parties which have gained importance highlighting SriLankan Tamil's issue, due to weaker Central Government were made to realize the significance of Stronger Central Government.

First few days into Government and It is clearly evident that he re-writing the rules of Game. Much more to come and analyze.

Parting Note:

The comment which I heard from my friend was that, It was Modi's 'Rajsuy Yagya' where all CMs, neighbor kings were invited. It was proclamation of a new king of Bharat Varsh.







     

Thursday, June 05, 2014

Marathwada's Sprint Towards Political Oblivion

Mundhe died yesterday in accident and with his death died the HOPE for Marathwada.

Its a backward region in every aspect. No Train route has been laid in this region from the time Nizams left this country and I believe that shall help everybody understand the status of development for this region.

Politically though there has been many stalwarts who have come through this land. It would be injustice on some Congress stalwarts to say that they didn't do anything for this region but they couldn't do much due to political compulsions.

The list of stalwarts would read at least 3 Chief Ministers of Maharashtra, 2 Home Ministers of India.
1) Shankarrao Chavan (CM/HM)
2) Shavajirao Patil Nilangekar CM
3) Vilasrao Deshmukh CM
4) Ashok Chavan CM
5) Shivraj Patil Chakurkar HM

So this list shall make one believe that this region must have got best of the best.

Reality is different though, and that's the reason there were hopes from Mundhe.

Mundhe-Mahajan, Two of Maharashtra's biggest BJP leaders came from Marathwada. Mahajan though a big name in Delhi circuits, people of this region never had high hopes from him (and that's the reason his native Ambejogai never voted big for BJP), whereas Mundhe becoming Cabinet Minister now and an almost Chief Minister in 2014 Assembly elections raised expectations, hopes of people.

Mundhe had a penchant for solving most teething issues for masses and it became evident from the way he went hard against Mumbai Gang-war, almost finishing it during his tenure. Similarly, he resolved the issues of Sugar-cane workers. His becoming Minister would have helped his home-town Beed significantly. Beed and Osmanabad are two towns of Maharashtra where basic infrastructure needs immediate attention. Water scarcity is a big issue which needs immediate attention. Talking about other aspects semi-skilled youth from this region is just roaming around aimlessly, which would have got necessary support under his leadership. Sitting in opposition he could just have one functional Sugar factory, there is limit to how many would benefit from that. The way Vilasrao's leadership helped Latur come alive post Killari earthquake, Mundhe's leadership would have helped Beed district to come out of un-developed status.

With his demise and imminent disqualification of Ashok Chavan, the picture looks very beak for Marathwada. Though I wanted BJP to win, everywhere else, Asho Chavan's victory from Nanded was very important as it established him as a leader with Voter support and Nanded can have a hope that someday he would become CM again and help Nanded develop further. With these two events, Politically Marathwada has gone back by almost 30 years. There was never a time when Political atmosphere in Marathwada was so gloom. There isn't any other capable voice who can raise concerns. Its almost certain that Marathwada region is moving towards political oblivion. Its a big political vacuum which has got created in this region and would take at least another 10 years to fill it in. Problem with BJP in Marathwada is, there is absolutely nobody in the second rung who could attempt to fill in the shoes.

NCP has been trying hard to make a footprint in this region, but it is kinda party which wont let anybody grow bigger than the Pawars.

There is Shiv-Sena but Thackarey Seniors death has significantly marginalized Shiv-Sena here. Uddhav couldn't establish a connect with local leadership, leave apart the masses here.            

This whole discussion brings up only one topic in mind, What next for Marathwada? What does Marathwada need to do so that the recovery is quicker?

Possible option could be to promote Mundhe's daughter but even one step in that direction could bring-forth the dynasty voices. Other option could be to provide support to Khaire, Aurangabad Shiv-Sena MP. Though he hasn't done anything significant in his own constituency, he is the one who can pull OBC votes to BJP as well as being in Parliament for last 2-3 times, developed rapport across party lines. The other hope could be that Ashok Chavan saves his seat by some legal gimmicky and remains relevant

Politically, Its really terrible situation for Marathwada and solution to which doesn't look possible in near future. 

Friday, September 27, 2013

2014 General Elections: Nanded

Its election season now. With BJP declaring their PM candidate, the atmosphere is really building up. More than Modi, for BJP, this is very important election. Its kind of make or break situation for them. First of all they failed to read Indian voters in 2004 and then the legendary debacle in 2009 general elections under the leadership of Advani made them look miserable. So it becomes very important for them to maximize anti-incumbency votes this time around under the leadership of Modi. There is certainly a leadership void in country and none of the congressman looks capable of filling it. Its not as if BJP or any other party has lot many candidates who can run a country but amongst all the possibilities, Modi's name has better acceptability; most probably because of the development plank he has been holding for last 10 years in Gujrat. There is other side to Modi's story as well but many Indians who have been exposed to potholed roads and frequent electricity cuts would like to see whether Modi can deliver (developmental) results similar to Gujrat at national level.

Thought of getting started and analyse at my level, which way these elections are going; before jumping on to region and states and eventually to India, lets get started with Nanded, My hometown.

Nanded, a constituency represented by India's Home Minister during Narsimharao Govt, Shankarrao Chavan has mostly been a loyal congress ground. Surely credits do go to S.B. Chavan for all the possible developmental work he has done during his tenure as Chief Minister of Maharashtra or Home Minister of India. In last 20-25 years, at least I have not heard anybody saying anything bad about him. He was known as pretty tough administrator, basically a no-nonsense guy and this reputation has surely helped Congress in Nanded. It was Shankarrao Chavan because of which people voted for Ashok Chavan in 1987 when he was barely 28-29 years old. Nanded Janta has voted for Bhaskarrao Khatgaonkar as well, who is otherwise a dud, looking at Shankarrao Chavan. I do strongly feel such factors do decide voting.

Anyways moving on, though Nanded has been a Congress bastion, Loksabha results from here have surprised everybody as well. Particularly it must be noted that strong anti-incumbency voting does happen in this constituency. In 1977, It was Janta Party who were voted from here but more significant results have come in elections after that.

In 1989 elections, Nanded seat went to Janta Dal leader Venkatesh Kabde defeating Ashok Chavan though back in 1991, post Rajiv Gandhi assasination, Nanded voted for Congress again. During elections in 90's Shankarrao ensured that Nanded seat will go to Congress manipulating three-way or a four-way fight. Nanded did have a decent voters for Peasants and Workers Party. Even their leader Sharad Joshi fought elections from here. On all these occasions opposing BJP candidate has lost by a margin smaller than votes garnered by third and fourth placed parties.

Come 2004, there was strong anti-incumbency against the ruling MP from Congress; BJP finally managed to win this Congress bastion. Congress managed to win this seat back in 2009 elections mainly due to Ashok Chavan who was the then Chief Minister of Maharashtra.

So now when we look at 2014 elections, It looks likely that BJP can win this seat with strong anti-incumbency voting as there is no Congress wave or the presence of Shankarrao / Ashokrao Chavan in government. Also, another factor of AIMIM will also have its impact on this constituency this time around. In recent municipal elections AIMIM has come out very strongly with some ~10+ corporators. So it will be important to see whether AIMIM contests this seat or provides its good chunk of votes to Congress. As the impact of Peasants and Workers Party has decreased in this constituency, Bahujan Mahasangh's impact has increased. If NDA manages to wean in RPI Athawale group that can add some votes to BJP's kitty.

So all in all, a possible win for BJP.

Nanded Constituency Results in last 8 elections:




Thursday, July 25, 2013

कुरुंदकरांच्या लिखाणातून

राजकीय नेत्यांना  धर्म हा धार्मिक आचरण करून मोक्षाला जाण्यासाठी नको असतो, तर धर्माचा आधार घेवून इहलोकातील हितसंबंध सुरक्षित ठेवण्यासाठी हवा असतो.
  

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Time to say Goodbye

We have grown up watching him, talking about him. It wont be same after him, But Its time, Time to say Goodbye. 

Monday, October 29, 2012

Indian (Congress) Express


I cannot believe how quickly I have started disliking Indian Express. For last few months, I have been observing that they are reporting worse than Saamana. Even Saamana doesn't try for Shivsena as much as I am seeing IE is trying to portray Congress in Good words.

First of all I saw them opposing Anna movement intensely, I thought they had some good points in argument but then came fiasco with Gen V.K. Singh’s plan to march on Delhi and shit.

And Now today, the headline is
Cautious Rahul Gandhi puts performance above proximity


IE readers have been with them because of their impartial reporting but whatever I have been observing for last few months or in fact an year is surely turning me away from them.

Feel sad for such a good newspaper, once it was. 

Monday, September 19, 2011

The Wall


Today’s match would be the last ODI for Dravid….. Most of the followers of cricket loved to hate this guy but he went on to score more than 10K runs in ODIs.

Undoubtedly, His one the most remarkable ODI inning for me is against Pakistan in 2003 world cup. After Tendulkar got out, we still needed 100 more runs, Yuvi and Dravid made sure India’s win in that amazing match. That victory is second only to 2011 World cup victory for me.

Though it was never easy to watch him score runs, I never lost hope until he is on crease.

He wasn’t in team for last 2 years, to say the truth, India didn’t feel like missing him even for one match but the fact is others (his replacements) also failed to fill in his shoes.